Gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2025: Swiss economy shows weak growth
Bern, 28.08.2025 — In the second quarter of 2025, Switzerland's GDP adjusted for sporting events increased by 0.1%, following growth of 0.7% in the first quarter[1],[2]. After the above-average growth seen in the previous quarter, the anticipated correction has now occurred. Industrial value added and exports declined sharply, whereas the services sector delivered broad-based growth. An updated economic scenario from SECO shows that, as a result of higher US import tariffs, the Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly than previously expected, particularly in 2026.
In the second quarter, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry (−4.8%) saw a sharp contraction in value added as exports fell. This followed a strong increase in the previous quarter, driven by front-loading effects linked to US trade policy. Value added also declined across other industrial sectors, resulting in a significant overall drop in manufacturing (–2.4%), accompanied by a substantial fall in exports[3] (–2.7%). Imports[4] (−3.7%) also decreased significantly, following strong growth in the previous quarter.
The slightly positive performance in domestic final demand (+0.1%) is reflected in fairly broad-based growth across service sectors. Private consumption (+0.3%) grew at a slightly below-average rate. Beyond food purchases, spending rose particularly in healthcare and hotel and restaurant services, supporting the accommodation and food services sector (+1.5%), health and social care services (+0.3%) as well as the transport and communication sector (+0.1%). Government consumption (+0.9%) grew more strongly than the historical average, reflected in rising value added in public administration (+1.2%). Although financial services (–0.2%) recorded a slight decline in value added due to falling commission business, other service sectors posted growth, including trade (+1.9%) and business-related services (+0.5%).
By contrast, construction investment (–0.1%) declined slightly, as did value added in the construction sector (–0.4%). Investments in equipment (–0.8%) also fell, reflecting weak performance across various categories of capital goods. The largest declines occurred in frequently volatile areas that are not immediately sensitive to cyclical changes, such as aircraft and research and development.
Economic situation and outlook
In its June forecast, the Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles projected significantly below-average growth for the Swiss economy (2025: 1.3%, 2026: 1.2%). With the introduction of higher US tariffs on imports from Switzerland at the beginning of August, the outlook has worsened further.
The next update to the economic forecast is scheduled for 16 October, later than usual. This delay reflects the comprehensive revision of the national accounts currently under way (see below). The forecast will be based on the revised data.
Given the current situation, SECO is supplementing today's GDP publication with an updated economic scenario[5]. According to this simulation, economic growth could be lower than forecast in June, particularly in 2026 (2025: 1.2%, 2026: 0.8%). A severe recession is not currently expected. However, the economic impact could be significant for certain sectors and companies.
Note
Data on GDP for the second quarter can be found at www.seco.admin.ch/gdp.
In line with international standards, a comprehensive benchmark revision of the national accounts is being carried out in 2025. On 29 September 2025, revised GDP data from the first quarter of 1980 to the second quarter of 2025 will be published, alongside the autumn 2025 edition of Konjunkturtendenzen (Economic situation in Switzerland) containing further information.
[1] Result for the second quarter unchanged since the ‘GDP flash’ published around 45 days after the end of the quarter (+0.1%); growth for the first quarter has been slightly revised down compared to the publication of 2 June.
[2] To facilitate cyclical interpretation, this press release provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates in real terms, seasonally adjusted and (where applicable) adjusted for sporting events. Adjustments for sporting events apply to GDP, the arts, entertainment and recreation sector, and exports and imports of services. Further details on the adjustment for sporting events can be found at www.seco.admin.ch/gdp under ‘Documents’. GDP growth not adjusted for sporting events: +0.1% in the second quarter of 2025 and +0.4% in the first quarter of 2025.
[3] Goods and services excluding valuables. Not adjusted for sporting events: −2.4%.
[4] Goods and services excluding valuables. Not adjusted for sporting events: −3.9%.
[5] For further information, see: www.seco.admin.ch/economic-forecasts.